Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, National Hockey League, Stanley Cup Playoffs, Western Conference -Dallas Stars NHL Playoff Series Preview by VSiN hockey analyst Andy MacNeil
The nhl surprised us all a little bit on friday when they announced that on saturday, the colorado avalanche and the dallas stars would be kicking off round two. Now this one is a pretty big mismatch, both in my opinion and by my estimation and by the estimation of bettors and bookmakers we’ll get into whether or not there is any betting opportunity to be had in this matchup and just talk a little bit about what Makes these two teams tick and and how they got here and where they’re going so without further ado, let’s preview, this second round matchup between the colorado avalanche and the dallas stars, the colorado avalanche were able to close out their series versus the arizona coyotes in five Games, they did so on wednesday night in dominant fashion, with back to back seven to one thumpings and it really put the hockey girl on notice. This team fell asleep a little bit in game two and actually let the coyotes steal a victory in game three, but game four and game. Five were just all avalanche and i think people will be surprised to learn that i’m expecting a lot more of the same. Here in this series, although not as bad, this dallas stars team is closer to the arizona coyotes than people might think. If we look back at the regular season, there isn’t a whole lot separating the arizona coyotes and the dallas stars according to evolving hockey at five on five, these two teams had very similar shot shares very similar shooting and saving numbers.
The only real difference was that the dallas stars had a better expected goal: differential per 60 minutes, in other words the series between the avalanche and the coyotes is sort of a sign of things to come for this dallas stars team. If you recall the avalanche closed as minus 300 series faves in their matchup against the arizona coyotes this time around against the dallas stars, they’re coming in at minus 260., so about a 70 chance when you strip away the big so not as big of a favorite. This time around in round two, but still a significant favorite. Nonetheless, a big reason for the mismatch is the fact that the dallas stars just don’t, have anyone that matches up to the big three in colorado as of right now, colorado avalanche forward. Nathan mckinnon leads the nhl playoffs with 13 points, and his line, mates, gabriel, landiscog and mikko. Rantman are right behind him with 10 points. Apiece. That line was a big reason why the avalanche had an expected goals. Four percentage of about 60 percent and scored almost 75 percent of the goals at five on five in their series versus the arizona coyotes, the dallas stars have a big three of their own. However, their top line is not nearly as productive as the avalanche’s top line, and, although they do control play for the most part, they have been experiencing declines for the last little while here it wouldn’t normally be anything to worry about.
If points dried up in a small sample size, however, this has been going on for a while. So these playoff numbers are very concerning jamie ben only has four points and tyler sagan and alexander radulov only have three apiece. On the back end, the dallas stars boast two very talented defensemen in john clinkberg and miro heskinin. However, the avalanche have a superstar of their own in kale, macar and overall have more depth on the blue line than the stars do both of these teams are set up pretty well in the crease. As far as goaltenders go philip grabauer and pablo francos man, the net for the colorado avalanche, and although grabauer had a bit of a down year, he has had a strong playoff. And i do like him, as his body of work is pretty strong overall dating back to his days with the washington capitals outside of the bigger names. We could talk about some very talented players here. We’Ve got rupe hints and joe pavalski and, of course, dennis girianov and on the avalanche side, we’ve got andre burakovsky, valerie, muchuskin, nazim kadri on defense, they’ve got samuel, girard and ryan graves and that’s kind of where i’m going with this. This avalanche team just has too much talent and too much depth for the stars to have a realistic chance and their chances are about 27. By my estimation, i have the avalanche winning this one about 73 of the time which translates to a line of minus 270.
So a tiny bit of value on the avalanches series price of minus 260, but not enough to warrant a bet here. Avalanche should win this one in four games about 13 of the time in five games, roughly 23 percent of the time in six games about 20 of the time and in seven games roughly 16 of the time. Of course, 27 percent is not zero and the dallas stars will come away with a series victory roughly 27 of the time. They’Ll do so in four games about 2.5 percent of the time in five games about 5.5 percent of the time in six games about 8.5 percent of the time and in seven games about 10.5 percent of the time. Well, that does it for me and this preview of this matchup between the dallas stars and the colorado avalanche.