Elon Musk Are SELF DRIVING CARS coming this year!? Elon Musk says YES! (INDUSTRY ANALYSIS)
Um, i think at tesla we i feel, like we’re, very close to level five autonomy. I guess i remain confident that uh we will have the functionality for the basic functionality for level five autonomy. Uh complete this year, what’s up guys ben here and welcome to motivation to invest autonomous vehicles or self driving. Cars seem to be the future with the likes of elon musk at tesla, google, self, driving car and even amazon talking about robo taxes. It seems as if it’s getting closer than ever. However, these same people such as elon musk promised us self driving cars. Many years ago and failed to live up to the big expectations now i love elon musk and, i think he’s a genius with some controversial opinions, he’s an inherent optimist. So i do understand when he says it’s gon na come next year and then it takes many years more. I understand where he’s coming from in terms of his mindset, but the real question is: what do the facts say on the ground and how close are we to autonomous vehicles? When will we get to the days when you can sit down and literally just take your hands off the wheel, go asleep, watch a movie and then have your car. Take you from a to b. How close are we to this? I remember watching the movie total recoil with arnold schwarzenegger when i was young and in that movie they had these robo taxis, Music, hello, i’m, johnny cat.
Where can i take you tonight, drive drive? Would you please repeat the destination? Oh anyway, just go. Go please! I’M. Not familiar with that address, would you please repeat that after watching that movie, i remember becoming fascinating with these cars, the sensors, the gizmos and exactly how they worked? Maybe this is what motivated me to get a degree in electrical and electronic engineering. This technology inspired me in the way it can change the world flash forward to today in companies such as amazon are actually working on a fleet of robo taxis, and even companies such as uber and lyft are also working on similar, automated taxi services. To me, there are three main challenges before autonomous vehicles get widely adopted. The first and most obvious one is the technology that is the sensors and the software which will allow autonomous vehicles to work on the road in any given condition. Several big players have begun to walk back their predictions on how soon we could see this technology. Even waymo’s chief external officer admitted that the hype around its self driving cars has become unmanageable. The technology has come a long way, but there’s still a lot of work to be done. There’S. The perception which is you know, using the sensors to figure out what’s around the vehicle and the environment around the vehicle prediction figuring out what those what those road users are going to be doing next in the next few seconds, turns out the perception, and especially prediction, Are really really hard problems to solve? Elon musk in classic form recently did an interview for chinese investors, in which you talked about artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles.
He actually promised again that they’re coming next year, so in 2021, or even late 2020. Now he says the technology will be there next year. Currently normal tesla vehicles on the road have partial self driving capabilities where you can take your hands off the wheel as it changes lanes and overtakes vehicles. However, there are some risks to using this system and it’s, not 100 reliable okay, so i think i have to get it on the highway. This is one thing about autopilot. You can just like whoa start it from your driveway and go to chicago. You have to get on roads with lanes, so we’re gon na get on the highway and then it’s hands free. If you know what i’m saying here, we go let’s test autopilot for the first time, ready turn it on that blue wheel. That means that autopilot is on. I don’t know if it’ll detect this red light, is it gon na turn? I don’t know if it’ll turn by itself, all right we’ll see if it turns by itself. I don’t think it does. Okay, it doesn’t it doesn’t turn by itself. I was not even supposed to go. This is not off to a good start. This computing power needs to sense. If somebody jumps in front of the car, if roads are narrowing, if there’s road works, if a traffic light’s broken, there are so many things that happen on the road that this technology needs to simulate every possible eventuality we’re on this road for 135 miles, i guess I’Ll uh, let you know when something crazy happens, all right, we’re only 10 minutes away from the supercharger location.
This has been a breeze it’s literally been 100 miles of just straight away. Every 10 seconds. I go like this sometimes there’s, like 30 second spans, where i don’t even touch the wheel at all and i’ve been in the fast lane. The whole time just chilling eyes closed just swinging. I mean it’s, essentially what’s happening here. So honestly, autopilot’s been a lot better. Oh, my god, oh my god, oh my god, what’s going on oh, looks like there’s a closed exit up here. Let’S actually see if it comes out of this lane. Oh no it’s, accelerating! Oh! No! Oh! No! Oh! No! Okay! No! No! All right! Oh my god! Now this is not good that’s why you can’t fall asleep at the wheel. The second major challenge is legislation and liability. So imagine you’ve got an autonomous vehicle it’s going along fine and bang it hit somebody or hit somebody else’s car and somebody dies who’s responsible. Is it you, is it me because i’m, the driver, or is it the car company that created the autonomous vehicle? Is it the other driver that crashed into your autonomous car, who is to blame and that’s a real big issue, especially with the amount of litigation going on these days? There are no federally established standards or testing protocols for automated driving systems in the us today, but there have been fatal crashes. A woman named elaine hertzberg was killed by an autonomous uber with a safety driver who was paying no attention.
This woman was crossing the street walking her bicycle should easily have been seen by the autonomous vehicle was not was run over and nobody stepped on the brakes. In 2016, a tesla fan named joshua brown died in a crash while using autopilot hands free in florida. Other autopilot involved accidents are now under investigation. Still, the industry is hopeful that autonomous vehicles will make the roads far safer than they are today. Really, the kind of zero to one moment for the industry will be when we can remove those safety drivers safely and the vehicle can operate without the presence of any human. Even if we could say that an autonomous vehicle was better than a human driver, it doesn’t mean that an autonomous vehicle is better than a human driver, plus all the advanced driver assist systems. We have, i think, the real opportunity for practical deployment of autonomous vehicles is in long haul trucking services on long straight roads moving freight up and down the country. To me this is a golden opportunity and i think tesla should be looking into that a lot more. Others are making self driving shuttles that operate along designated routes only or focusing on trucks with long haul highway routes. Others are developing the brains that drive the car. An early leader was google, who started its self driving car project in 2009, known as waymo. Today, the company is developing hardware and software that can function as the brains in a self driving car aurora is taking a similar approach founded in 2017 by early players from uber, tesla and google’s self driving initiatives, it’s already raised 620 million in funding from amazon and Other big name – investors aurora, is testing vehicles on the road in pittsburgh, pennsylvania and out here in the bay area.
We don’t yet let the public in our cars our cars, are on the road. We have two of our test operators. In there the technology we’re building can operate from a compact electric car to a minivan to even a big long. Haul truck argo, ai and aptiv are examples of other companies taking a similar approach. Lyft is developing its own self driving systems now too, and offering self driving rides on its app through partnerships in select areas, and the third is the cost. The cost of this technology, the computing power and the sensors is massive that’s. Not to mention the support you should need should something go wrong. However, despite these drawbacks, i do believe autonomous vehicles are the future and i believe companies such as tesla are leading the way as they are racking up more training miles for their ai software than almost any other company. So maybe elon musk is crazy, but you need somebody crazy and bold. In order to take on the big challenges in the world, you have to be an internal optimist and look towards the future. However, in the short term, investing into tesla stock betting on automated fleets of taxis is a risky business, but what technology tesla has now and how different is this to companies such as google and gm? So what your thoughts on elon musk? Do you think he is a genius or completely bonkers? Let me know in the comments below and i’ll join in the discussion.
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