How to strategize an anticipated parabolic run | My Star Vault game plan
Launch. Technically, the company has never looked stronger than now.. But what can we expect to happen up until that big day And how can we maximize our profits by playing its stock movements like a fiddle At some point? At the end of this year, Star Vault will release their new game Mortal Online 2 on the global gaming platform STEAM.. The exact date is yet to be announced. Prior to every historical Star, Vault launch or hype. The stock price has aggressively built up towards the release. Dates. And since March this year, we have already begun to see a significant build up, accompanied by record heavy trading volumes.. There is certainly a lot of anticipation on the market and we do have reason to expect prices to continue to build up before. Finally, surging in a parabolic like fashion in the last days leading up to the launch., But what price developments can we realistically expect? How should we act upon them And why does it matter when and how those price developments occur And, most importantly, What are the risks? Well, stay tuned. For were about to bring clarity to Star Vaults pre, launch stock movements., But before anything else, please note that nothing in this episode is financial adivce.. Everything, I say is my own thoughts and conclusions ONLY., And if this episode helps you better understand how to properly strategize Star Vaults, presumable upside from now on, please like and subscribe. And share it with others who may benefit from this content too.
. It may not show, but each episode comes together only after excessive hours of sweat, pain, procrastination and coffee.. Your engagement is what drives this channel and brings my pulse back to normal again. And, on a final note, Id like to thank Martin for the insightful comments and for helping me straight out some question. Marks. Now lets begin with the most important part. The risk. Star, Vault, has struggled all the way back since its 2007 IPO.. After that, each hype and launch has been one disappointment, after the other to which the market has reacted by slaughtering the stock price. In September 2013, for example, Star Vault announced that they would be launching their game Mortal Online on the worlds biggest gaming platform STEAM.. This was big news and the stock responded by rallying 520 percent on that very day. I still remember it as one of the most thrilling and unreal market days throughout my career. Upon the September announcement in 2013. The release date was set not too far into the future., But once the release date came near, Star Vault publicly postponed the release date by a few months, as they hadnt completed all the necessary preparations yet.. Unfortunately, though, it didnt stop there.. In total, the release was postponed, no less than six times. And with each delay they publicly declared a new official release date.. Instead of a few months, it took Star Vault two full years until August 2015, before the game went, live on STEAM.
. The entire release was an anticlimax and, on the very day, the price plummeted by almost 30 percent. Three months after the release date, the stock had lost an additional two thirds of its value. Whats. My point with this, My point is that Mortal Online 2 or MO2 is Star Vaults, magnum opus, the project that is more in line with the companys original vision., And if they blow this chance, I strongly doubt the market will give Star Vault another chance. For at The end of the day, you can only throw some much good money after bad., But – and this is a big butt If Star Vault delivers. If the gaming community takes to MO2, then this could be the beginning of an epic stock ride not just to the moon but to the bloody sun.. The way I see it, this might be the make it or break it crossroads for Star Vault., And I hope they use this moment as an endorphine shot to perform under pressure, or else it might very well be game over.. But not only is the game quality of central importance. It is paramount – and I repeat, paramount – that Star Vault proves to the rightly so sceptical market that they have matured, that they have learned from their mistakes and that they can meet their own publicly announced deadlines. For, at the end of the day, its a simple display Of professionalism and the fact that the company itself can be trusted.
– And I hope by God that they have learned from their old mistakes., For if they havent chances, are they never will., As mentioned this years, launch is certainly one that has induced a lot of hope. Amongst the shareholders. And given the technical strength and stock momentum, I do expect a steady price increase with higher lows and higher highs, and at least one parabolic run prior to the release. Date. In this sense, Star Vault is a hugely interesting prospect.. The only pre launch risk and one that can be of a truly self sabotaging nature is, if Star Vault again were to postpone the release. Date. In such case expect Star Vaults stock price to freefall and expect whatever original prelaunch stock price potential to be decimated. Just like it was in 2015, as the price didnt even get close to the previous high from the month before, but rather toppled over and died. Technically Star Vault still looks incredibly strong and promising and Im confident in having a big position.. One thing in particular that speaks in favour for further dramatic upsides is the abnormally heavy trading volumes we have seen over the last few months.. This goes on to show the widespread interest and hope in the company, however temporary and is just the fuel we need for new local highs. For lets face it without enough buyers in relation to sellers. It doesnt matter one bit how perfectly the technical stars are aligned.. That said, I will still treat the stock with the utmost respect and I will exploit every expected move to add value to my swing strategy.
. So how then, will I play it, Given that things go as planned and that there are no postponements or hickups the or that market tanks, which is always a risk? My plan is to release all of my stocks, either on the release date or the day before. As whatever price we will see is likely to be a hyped up, overreaction. But.. I am also looking at adding value to my swing position by exploiting certain moves. In this sense Im. Looking at selling my entire position. If and when the price hits certain key resistance levels within certain times., The purpose in such cases is to buy back again at a cheaper price and therefore end up with more stocks at no extra cost. Well get into detail on that in a bit.. But, first of all, in order to understand the technical map at hand and to structure a proper swing trade game plan, we need to determine what those key resistance levels are.. The first thing we will look at is fibonacci levels., But not only fib levels.. We will be looking at fib clusters., Just like proper RSI usage is much more dynamic than first meets the eye. So too is the use of fibonacci retracements.. The two dimensional way of using it is simply by drawing a fib from a top to a bottom, or vice versa, and then determining its various levels.. A more reliable way of using fibonacci retracements, however, is by combining fib levels from different pivot highs and lows to see where certain fib levels cluster together.
. Practically this comes down to the fact that there are buyers and sellers all over the chart who too are affected by future price action.. This means that there are year old bag holders who are subconciously and unknowingly affected by the fibonacci levels too, and who will be statistically inclined to sell off at a minimized loss once the stock surges. And as we can see in Star Vault, the most significant fib Cluster levels are 074, 093 and 103.. This means that each fib level comes with some sort of a resistance and that they combined constitute a resistance area which can be manifested as a resistance box. And given the heavy trading volumes that are behind this cluster of fibonacci levels, this box will automatically constitute a Significant level of resistance. Moving on to support and resistance, lines. 050 constitutes a strong level of resistance.. We have seen a lot of historical rejections at this very level where the price time and again has struggled to push through. On the way down. On the other hand, it has offered little or no support, at all the only exception of any relevance being the 2007 dip., Given its seemingly glass ceiling characteristics. I will treat this 050 level with the utmost respect.. Some may protest and say that the local top in July 2018 in itself constitutes a resistance level.. I beg to disagree with that, as it was a highly temporary one, which also occured under weak trading volumes.
Practically speaking. There are not many old buyers from that level who are waiting to finally sell off at break even., And what also disregards that level as a resistance of any significance is the fact that they were both wicks.. The real area of resistance in that case is the actual closing and opening levels 38 respectively, which was tested and rejected the other week.. However, the next time we retest this level whenever that might be, I expect us to push through fairly easily.. The next important level of resistance after 050 is the fib cluster. We just talked about especially the one between 080 and 1 krona, as they also coincide with previous closing, tops and wicks.. These two levels thus automatically constitute levels of resistance on their own.. Add to that the significant trading volumes and you will notice that there are plenty of old bag holders who are just waiting for an opportunity to dump their long time double digit losses and who will happily settle with break even.. Due to this intense resistance area, I will not keep any of my position above this box whatsoever., Not even during a parabolic run.. Prices may very well proceed higher eventually, but certainly not without a hefty correction to get new people onboard. Things dont just go up without pauses or corrections, however modest those might be.. My initial plan was to present the most likely price development scenarios.. I had them all written and prepared and with an accompanying gaming theory, tree diagram where each likely outcome was estimated percentually and summed up mathematically from an expected value point of view.
As in how much profits each scenario would return. For. By doing this, you can literally calculate what do to and when to do it and leave all emotions aside.. In the end, however, I decided to scrap it as it made the episode a bit heavy and number dense.. I might do a simplified version of it later to teach you how you can approach an expected parabolic run from a gaming theory perspective., Because extracting maximum value from a parabolic run is anything but easy., Quite the opposite.. But I still think this episode will get close. Enough., Hence I dont see the need to go deeper for now.. The first thing we need to look at in order to establish a solid swing trading game plan up until the launch is the resistance levels and why they are important.. And as mentioned earlier 050 and the fib cluster box, between 080 and 1 krona are our focus. Star. Vault has 200 million stocks.. This means that at its current state the company is valued at 60 million kronor or 6 million euros.. That is 6 million euros for a company that has made continuous losses and survived on rights issues for 13 years., Reasonable, Not quite., Even if from this day and all the way to the launch, no news of any fundamental value emerges. The price is still likely to go up, and so too will the company valuation increase just like prior to any previous hype or launch.
. This means that if the company is worth 6 million euros today, when we already know the launch is coming, how much, then, is it reasonable to expect the company to be worth at any point up until the release itself – 10 million euros – 20. 50. This in itself is, of course, difficult, if not impossible, to tell., But do remember that any breakthrough success for Star Vault or ultimate failure for that matter will come after the release date once we know whether the game is well received or not. In this sense. For the company to go from barely breaking even to being valued at 10 or 20 million euros, Star Vault will need to sell a lot of games.. Yet the market already values the company at 6 million euros.. All it takes to reach 10 million or 20 million euros is for the stock price to climb to 050 and 1 krona respectively., Not that big a leap, but rather a very possible one.. The further away we are from the release date, the more sensible the market is likely to be.. This is because there is a silent cap of how much the company can be valued at even at a hype. Star. Vault would, for example, never ever ever trade at 5 kronor per stock prior to the launch, as it would be the same as valuating the local ice cream shop at 100 million euros.. For that reason, any temporary over valuation from a fundamental perspective is highly likely to be shot down.
. That brings us to the question of what a probable highest price scenario is likely to be prior to the launch.. If we look at the current price level of around 028 and how recently the price was trading just south of 050, due to the cat game launch and comparing that game to the vast potentials of MO2, we can safely assume that 050 is not the silent. Pre launch cap. That leaves us with the fib cluster between 074 and 1 krona.. Here is my prediction at the launch date, given that it is not postponed and that everything runs smoothly up until that point, I think we stand a predominant chance of testing this territory.. My best estimation is that we will push into the early 080 range, at least upon which we may very well be brutally rejected and where the stock might not. Surprisingly turn into another Eiffel Tower. Formation. For Star Vault has had plenty of those before and each and every one of them related to launches and hypes.. For this reason, and regardless of what I will sell everything I can into this fib cluster, whenever it takes place., I will dump my entire position in a heart beat. For looking at it from a zoomed out perspective, it would amount to the Star Vault being worth 16 million euros before even knowing whether the new game is well received or not. That, on its own, would be ludicrous. Having said that, though, hypes are hypes.
, Just look at Tesla., Look at the IT bubble or any historical Star, Vault run, and we can quickly conclude that we stand every chance in the world to end up in this resistance, box. And the closer to the release date. We get the higher the probability. And thats the key, the closer we get for. I strongly doubt we will see any such fantasy land prices before the release date is within reach.. The way I see it, we can either hover around sideways between around 2025 and 38. For some time until such extreme pre launch run occurs or more likely, we will given the very strong technical, build up and momentum that we are already seeing get an initial test of 050 within a not too distant future. Breaking above this level. Any time soon, however, or rather any time earlier than two weeks before the launch date, is very unlikely., 050 is a strong key resistance, but yet one towards which all the current technical build up and momentum pushes us.. For that reason, I would in fact go as far as to say that a test of this resistance would not at all be unreasonable to expect., At least its one, that I expect myself and one that I will sell my entire position into and buy back again. Wherever the price finds support and stabalises, whether that be at 38, 28, 25 or 20. In such cases, I will cease the moments to buy back, not only my initial position, but also add on new stocks with the swing profits.
. This would fully equip me for the launch, where I would ideally have increased my position significantly, but at no extra cost. Do bear in mind, however, that the closer we get to the release date, especially when we are less than two weeks away. I will not sell anything at 050 as the chance of breaking that level increases the closer to the release we get., If we for some reason, were to break above the 50 resistance level within a month from the release and find support above it, it would be An incredibly bullish case that would increase the likelyhood of pre launch prices up to 1 krona or a company valuation of 20 million euros equivalent.. In such circumstances, I would buy back all of my stocks again at no loss. As my swing sell was at around 50 anyway. From a longterm perspective, this would be an incredibly strong case technically for further sustainable price developments., If you believe in the game and the company and are in it for the long run. This is the scenario you want to see. What you dont want to see for a longterm. Sustainable price development, however, is for Star Vault to test the 050 resistance or higher, get rejected and go back to its current base at 028, close within a couple of weeks from the release date.. That would be a strong technical sign of disinterest and faded hype, and the launch itself would likely turn into a fiasco with a lowered silent cap of 050 070 at best.
. To sum it all up, Star Vault shows immense technical strength and momentum., One that very likely will pull us towards the key resistance at 050, upon which I will release my entire position unless its two weeks or less form the actual release date.. Once the price finds a new support, I will use that level to re, enter and buy new stocks with the swing profits.. I will repeat this procedure for as many times as the opportunity is given.. From this point of view, the ideal situation would be a sideways range between 28 or 38 and 50.. Using these levels of support and resistance before the launch will equip me to utilize them from swing trades., And once the price enters the fib cluster between 074 and 1 krona, I will release my entire position into it. No questions asked.. What are your thoughts and your strategy prior to Star Vaults launch? Let me know in the comment section. That was all for now..