Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, BMW Championship, PGA TOUR FS Showdown Round 3 Picks & Predictions – 2020 BMW Championship DraftKings & FanDuel
The guys inside told me that they want me to do it again. A couple of times, plus i’ve got a couple of new things to show you that i do in my model after each round, so let’s get my ugly mug off the screen and jump right into it. So this is the second round after the second round. I should say the bmw pg championship. Excuse me. I did that yesterday too, it’s not pga championship, it’s, just the bmw championship. Bmw pga championship is a european tour event. Anyways we’ll get on with what we’re doing here. Okay. So this is round three uh that we’ve got coming up. What i’ve done here is i’ve added in the odds to win just in case you are a better and you’re interested in looking at my model and looking at possibly good bets uh going into the weekend. You know sometimes that what i would say is in good bets is looking at guys that are playing really good t to green in terms of the event average, but maybe haven’t gotten their putter going. Quite yet. You know something like xander chocolate, who is still 28 to one and sits just four back. You know a couple of other guys there. Louise stays in. He sits two two back he’s 25 to one billy horschel 28 to 1 stuff. Like that again not recommending these things but it’s just another way for you to look at the information and try and get some value okay.
So this is your first time watching if you didn’t catch it yesterday, i’ll just quickly go through what the information is on here. The total rating, that is, if you’re building, multiple entries, which sometimes i do sometimes i don’t. If i do, this is what i load into fantasy country. This is what i would call the projected points i got in trouble for that at one point, though uh, where somebody didn’t really say that it was scientific enough to be projected points but it’s. What i expect the golfers to come in around um today, i believe the top scorer was patrick cantley, who had 42 points, or at least somewhere around there. So i project you know ‘ is the top okay, so that’s what the rating means. Of course we go left to right. We got our round by round scores. We got our how many strokes back. They are birdies eagles bogeys, greens and regulation driving accuracy driving distance there. So the what i’ll call the old age statistics and then, of course, on the right hand, side we’ve got the new age statistics. We’Ve got t green approach off the t ball striking around the green, putting and short game okay. So the most important thing that i think i can talk about here and again, if you missed the video yesterday, one of the things that i will love to look at one of the first things i’ll do is i’ll, go and i’ll.
Look at the difference between the strokes gain ball, striking versus putting i put this in the article. What what this tells me is golfers that are really striking the ball well they’re, putting themselves into position, or at least this is where you have to go a little bit more into the stats. At least you think that they are now why i said you think they are was because when we look at kevin sherman kevin strowman’s actually lost 1.4 to 1.45 t to green on average. That must mean he’s losing like yeah. There we go, he lost six strokes. Putting in round two for now an average of losing 3.78 per round so, as you can see, kevin strowman, not one of the guys we’d like to focus on, but somebody like danny lee who’s ball striking, is very good. Matthew, wolf, roy mcelroy, xander shaw flight. We tried adam hadwin here in that last round. He looked like he was going well, he had got it to 200 bar, but ended up coming in to over a couple of other guys that seemed to be bouncing back. Lando griffin, dustin johnson and carlos ortiz is also there all right, that’s one of the first things that i like to look at. The next thing that i like to look at is the differential by route. So i again, i put this in the article and i think this is probably the most important people for that are watching for the second time.
If you caught my first video awesome, then this will be really helpful to you. If you didn’t catch my first video, then i can just tell you quickly that what i’m looking for is, i love to go. Look at ball, striking, first, okay! So after we look at i’m sorry, second, after we look at ball striking versus punting, then i’ll go strictly right. The ball striking, because some people might be striking the ball well and putting well. And of course, we want to know who those golfers are um. So what i’ll do here, though, is second, is i’ll, come and see who struck the ball well in round two. Maybe they found something on the course. I love to focus on these guys in the next round, because um, no, i don’t, expect it to happen. Every round, but it could be a signal that form is coming um again it’s a small sample size, but it is something i like to look at, for example, cory connors, who we know, is an elite ball striker when he’s on today, he gained five strokes ball. Striking that says to me that he found something either within the round and hopefully we can get it to go another one, another guy max homa. He gained about four more strokes ball striking in round two than he did in round one maverick mcneely kevin, kisner, matt, wolfe and yeah. I guess we could talk about kevin truman, but let’s.
Just talk about matt wolfe, kevin kisner and maverick mcneely, all of them gaining three more strokes ball striking in round two than they did in round one for a guy like maverick mcnealy as well. This is something i really like to see because he is one of the best putters on tour, and you can tell this week he’s even putting well. He had a good punting day today. His approach is, though, still lacking, so this is what i’ll do i’ll go through. This is exactly how i’ll analyze it i’ll first i’ll, look at ball striking then i’ll go over to the approaches and say all right. Well, i know that this week off, the t is super important if you’re putting it in the fairway, but we know that you need to have a good approach game with how hard the greens are to give yourself any birdie looks so that’s how i can see You know maverick mcneely gaining point three, but as good as a putter. He is all he needs to do is match the field on his approaches and uh he’s in good shape. Speaking of good on his approaches, kevin kisner back to back rounds now, where he’s gained over a stroke, 1.4 strokes on his approaches and he’s. Also, a great putter hasn’t quite found it yet found it a little bit in round one missed a couple of five footers in round two he’s, a guy that i would definitely be targeting for weekend, long and round three um, due to his seeing the consistency in His game and knowing how good of a putter he is definitely going to be part of my lineups here, uh this weekend and tomorrow.
A couple of other guys that i like – and this is now now going into kind of the secondary uh form of analysis that i’ll do – is okay, i’ll, look and see for guys that have gained pretty good in both rounds. So now, of course, we’re looking at the differential between rounds, one and two, but what i’m now next i’m going to look for is golfers that are hitting it that are playing well in both rounds. They gained a lot of strokes in both rounds. Kevin kisner, like i just mentioned, was one john rahm has been much better this week than he was last week with his irons he’s gained in both, but guys like xander schoff, like definitely will be on my radar this week, i’m – not not this week tomorrow and For the weekend, long customs dustin johnson, continues to be informed. Mackenzie hughes looks good with his irons, as does alex noren and there’s. One certainly going to be part of my lineups tomorrow, alex norton he’s, a great putter, and you need to be a great partner this week. He’S not doing that well off the tee, as you can see, but his irons right here very good in both rounds. A couple of other guys brendan steele, gained in both rounds as well patrick reed again, so these are guys, especially if i’m mmm brendan steele patrick reed, definitely going to be part of my player pool um, even guys like tiger woods, i mean poor tiger.
He really is struggling with putter, but billy horschel has gained in two rounds. Adam scott now has gained in two rounds. So yes, while seeing a guy do much better on the differential side, is certainly good. We also can’t remove the fact that golfers like, for example, alex noren. He gained four tenths of less strokes on his approaches in round two than he did in round one, but he still gained point almost point: nine strokes in round two with his approaches so that’s. Why i wanted to bring that up? Not uh differential can be used in certain circumstances, to try and find golfers that are finding form, but in the same sense you have to look at the lowest differential golfers. That may be already in form and are continuing to do so. So those are the pieces of analysis and how i can use all of this information to make my lineups and make my player pull for each and every showdown uh. Of course, the last thing we want to look for birdie or better uh. That is just so important with all the uh with the with high high scoring uh you need as many producers you can get. So of course, we take a look at that. So hopefully you guys have uh enjoyed these uh showdown breakdowns, uh, showdown breakdowns, hey that’s, pretty good, not bad there, and of course, if you want access to this model and and i put a lot of work into it – uh each and every night um then i Get it out for you guys, of course, with the contest sizes being great.
You know, 50k again to first place tomorrow for just round three another 20k to first on draftkings uh. For the weekend, long contest come join the plus side, the osmo plus side you’re, going to get this you’re going to be able to take this information. I just gave you copy and paste it into your own, excel disseminate it work with it. I mean if you’re an excel master, unlike i am, you could certainly do a ton with it if you’re not an excel master. I make it pretty easy for you to copy and paste it into your own and just put it on a filter and be able to sort so uh that’s 8.95 for the week and, of course, if you’re, not an osmo plus member, you want to come on For the month, you’re going to get this all the showdown stuff all of the weekly stuff, especially the top golfers tool from alex osmond baker. His golfer projections and ownership projections, which are some of the most important and best in the industry, come join us 29.99. For the month, you’re gon na get some great golf, including a major coming up here in just two weeks, so until next time everybody, i hope, you’ve enjoyed these videos. We’Ll continue for the weekend as the content.