MLB 2020 MLB Season Preview – Monte Carlo Model, Daily Fantasy, and Baseball Betting Discussion
But if you have followed me along on twitter at wcleiss, which is my twitter account, you would see me discussing the development of my brand new for the season monte carlo baseball model. I have been hard at work developing and, to this point i’m, pretty much done with development of it for now, but once the season starts, i’ll have a little bit more to add on to and code in before it’s finished. So, even though the season starts tomorrow july 24th, it’s – probably not going to be ready for another week or so so. My target date right now is july 31st to launch my brand new ultra comprehensive, most complex model. I have ever developed for anything baseball model. July 31st is a target date. It might be a few days before that might be a few days after i don’t know how long it’s going to take me to add in the remaining things i need to add in, but i can’t start until the games actually start, so it at very early Is probably july 28th but we’ll see, but anyway, this is by far the most complex model i’ve ever built. It took me two months of development. I only worked on it on saturdays and sundays, but even then i would be spending most of the day, both of those days working on this it’s, very complete, it’s, very thorough i’ve covered all my bases, so i have a lot riding on this model, at least In terms of development time, i can’t guarantee it’s going to turn a profit.
I’Ll never do that on this channel, but i’m hoping it does because of all the time i spent on it. But you never know, we’ll have to wait and see, and even when i start running the model, you know i’ll still have to run it a few days after that to build up keys and everything. So i’ll still need to calibrate it and all that but it’s very thorough it’s, a 100 monte carlo model built from the ground up it normalizes stats, it neutralizes stats park, factors, player, projections, weather wind, speed, all that is in there it’s going to be fun. So, even if it doesn’t turn a profit, it’s still going to be fun to use and the biggest thing that this model does that i’ve never done before in any sport. Is i built it with daily fantasy in mind so i’m going to be using this model for draftkings and daily fantasy sports, so that’s going to be interesting, something i’ve never done before so that’s going to be a new pioneer so follow along here on sports betting. True to see how i can tie that model into daily fantasy, but apart from that it’s going to be the regular bets for baseball i’m going to keep it kind of simple at first. You know so: it’s really going to be limited to full game money lines. Full game totals and team totals as well as first five inning money line. First, five inning totals in first five inning team totals as well as run lines for both the full game and first five inning and all the alternate run lines that are offered will be included.
So there’s going to be a lot of different things. We can bet on here daily fantasy and your traditional bets, so it’s going to be fun so stay tuned to this youtube channel. Follow me on twitter at wcliss and i’m also going to be starting to post. My plays on instagram at wcleiss as well to kind of get that instagram account up and running again, so i’ll be posting, my picks for free 100 free every day, i’ll post the actual bets, probably in the morning or early afternoon, but as far as the daily Fantasy lineup, for the day, for obvious reasons, i won’t be able to post that until the game starts, but i’ll be posting that every day as well, so you can follow along and track my model’s progress. So i coded the model in r and it’s very thorough lots of lines of code, so hopefully i’ll be able to explain a little bit more detail once i actually start using it, how the model works and what’s in there i’m not going to go into the Complete guts and everything you know for obvious reasons, but it’s a very thorough model. So if you want to see how a thorough model actually performs follow along right here, this is your place. Now this isn’t, my first mlb model i’ve used an lb model before last year. You know that was the very first model i showed on this channel and i’ve experimented with mlb models in the past, but i’ve never really found one that worked for me like the one last year was doing alright up until the last day of the year.
So a traditional year of mlb betting for me, usually spans from memorial day to the day before college football begins. So it usually falls on like a friday in august and that’s, because i usually let a couple months build up in mlb season. So we can get stats and sample sizes up there and everything, but obviously this year’s short 60 game season. I couldn’t do that this year, which is why i decoded in the player projection system. So i can hit the ground running right away and not have to wait for a sample to build up, but most years that’s, usually how i do it just the summer betting and i stop when college football starts, but i’m not going to do that. This year, i’m going to hit the ground running right away and hopefully bet on it all the way through the end of the world series. Now the model i used last year, you know it was not nearly as comprehensive or complex as the model i have this year. It was still a monte carlo model, but very elementary. I guess, and it did okay um. It was actually profitable all the way up until that last day of the year, so the last day of baseball betting for me last year, was friday august 23rd. I think, and going up until that last game. I was up five units on the year. So really nothing major, but then i went one and 11 that last night and ended the year negative so but i’d always plan on finally building a baseball model, a lot more complex.
So this was the off season to do it with nothing going on really. What brought me to the next level for this model was the baseball savant statcast database, which is what i use for this model. Awesome awesome awesome awesome, thank you for providing this mlb.com and darren w. Whoever you are. Thank you. The problem i’ve always had in the past with baseball modeling is just not having the data set. I needed to pull off my vision and with the savant statcast database search, i finally am able to pull off the vision i’ve always had for a baseball model, it’s everything i need. I wish every other sport did this in terms of their stats and a database of stats. Thank you, baseball! Save it. Thank you. So, with savin doing everything i needed to do, i was able to execute my vision and i’m excited to see how it plays out. This baseball season is going to be fun. Most comprehensive baseball model i’ve ever built monte, carlo daily fantasy sports in mind, so it tracks each individual, player’s expected stats as well as a game outcomes very thorough, so just stay tuned right here to see how the most thorough baseball model ever built, at least in My opinion from what i know: it’s – probably not the most thorough baseball model built, but at least as far as what i know, stay tuned right here to see how it does if this model can’t profit, i don’t know what model can, because i feel like i’ve, Covered all my bases here, i would not have a lot of hope for baseball modeling in the future.
If this one does not pan out, but i think it will, i can’t make any promises, but we’ll see anyway, that’s what’s in store for sports betting. Truth again, i’m hoping to get this model up by july 31st. Up and running. Follow me on twitter, at wcleiss and instagram at wcliss to see how this model does and like i’ve been doing in college football and college basketball. I hope to do like weekly update videos just to show you how the model’s doing anything i changed anything i added that type of stuff, because that’s the whole point of this channel. The point of this channel is not a pix channel. It is not a channel for you all to see my picks and me to give you my picks and show you how great i am and how awesome i am at picking. So you all can worship me and tell me how great i am at picking that’s that’s, not what this is about, that’s, what a lot of other channels are about and a lot of other social media venues are about when it comes to sports betting. But not this channel. The point of this channel is truth and i think a major aspect of truth when it comes to sports betting is using a model and therefore you guys can tune into this channel to see how sports betting actually works with a model, and i can’t do that. Without me, giving out my picks and giving you regular updates and 100 transparency with all that that’s.
The benefit of this channel is transparency and to see how using a model actually works and what is possible in sports betting anyway, that wraps it up july 31st. Is our target date? I cannot wait. It’S july 22nd games start tomorrow, i’m, hoping friday after the first games are played. I can finally get to work on the remaining parts of my model that i need to program in i’m, going to be working very hard. This weekend on my model, it’s going to be great – hopefully i have it done and up and running sometime next week, it’s going to be awesome. I can’t wait. Oh man, this is this. Is this.