So how does the new mars colonization timeline? Look then, of course, we have to take a look at the current state of all the starship prototypes at boca chica and, of course, no episode would be complete without mentioning nasa’s artemis program, and here we now have a date for the sls green run, hot fire Test where the engines of the sls core stage will be fired up for the first time and we’d also like to do a small comparison between the artemis and the apollo program. Oh and an interesting moon mission as part of the clps program. A lot to talk about so stay tuned. We all know that elon time is a sometimes elon gives us some really ambitious timelines, which he often likes to call aspirational. Then you think yeah, yeah, he’s doing again the elon time thing and then them suddenly. He didn’t exaggerate and is right on schedule, as we have witnessed, for example, with some of the tesla releases, such as the model y, which was not only on time but was actually launched earlier than expected. Then other times elo made some announcements and we believed it. Then eat long time, but of course we are all very emotional about the future of space exploration. So more often than not, we want to believe we want to believe that it’s possible to send the first cargo starships to mars in 2022. We want to believe that humans can land on mars in 2024, but, as we already estimated in our last attempt to give a realistic timeline of future moon and mars colonization, it was very likely from the start that we must add a few years on top of Elon’S already optimistic estimates, some viewers believe that we were too pessimistic.

I mean hey starship is advancing really fast, so why not the cargo mission to mars in 2022? Some went even as far as to say that elon will launch a cargo mission to mars already this year. We are, as always, quite cautious with such time estimates, and thus our timeline was that we might see the first cargo flights to mars in 2024. Then second tries in 2026 and the first human landing in 2029, and now at the 2020 mars society virtual convention elon pretty much confirmed that the 2022 starship cargo missions to mars are very unlikely to happen. He said that spacex might be able to send unmanned cargo missions to mars in 2024.. Take a listen, i think we could get to mars. We could probably send an uncrewed mission there in maybe four years like, i think we maybe have a shot of standing or you know trying to send something to mars in three years. But the windows is four years away because of the being in different parts of the solar system, so spacex might be ready, as elon said in 2023, but of course they will have to wait until 2024 for the first try until earth and mars. Align again, this to us sounds quite doable and realistic. We always were of the opinion that 2022 seemed far too optimistic and now elon basically confirms our view. Then we would see probably a second run, of unmanned cargo missions to mars in 2026 and if both the 2024 and the 2026 launches go well without some unforeseen negative incidents, we might really have a chance for the first human mission in 2029.

We always said that the first humans on mars by 2029 or 2031 is the most realistic outcome of the starship program. Now, of course, many of you might be disappointed now because we were all hoping for 2024, but remember just because we want something to happen or to be true. It doesn’t actually increase the chances that it will happen the way we want. He also said that the first starship orbital flight will probably happen next year, then by 2022 starship and super heavy might be ready to fly the first missions, which will most certainly be starling missions. Starlink will be the ideal testing scenario for starship one starship payload cargo hold can take at least 400 starlink satellites, so around 8 times more than falcon 9 and starship will fly many starling missions in order to test all systems and make them function reliably. If starship has demonstrated at least 20 to 30 flights without major incidents, then probably yuzaku matava’s dear moon mission can happen in 2023. During the same time, we might see moon starship perform the first unmanned moon landings. If this goes well, who knows maybe really the first humans to return to the moon will be brought there by starship in 2024? So, yes, this is our best case timeline. Dear moon mission, in 2023, starship meant moon landing in 2024 starship cargo missions to mars. In 2024., starship meant mars landing in 2027, but if stuff goes wrong, it could also look like this dear moon in 2024 meant moon landing in 2025 or even 2026, and met mars landing in 2029.

But even should this happen, we shouldn’t be too sad, because this is still infinitely better than what nasa could have achieved if spacex hadn’t existed and please consider subscribing to our channel, because you can be very sure that we will forever continue bashing inefficient companies like boeing, Who cost 10 times more than spacex and deliver 10 times less at the same time? Thank you very much in order to be able to realize the more optimistic time frame, spacex is working really hard at boca chica. Of course, all attention is still directed towards starship sn8, which is ready to undergo static fire testing. As of recording of the video, it has not happened yet, but it might have already happened as of release of the video on monday october 19th. There would have been a static fire on saturday, but we remember that this first attempt had been scrubbed. If this second static fire attempt goes well and we hope it will, then sn8 will get the nose cone section attached complete with flaps. We can see that the nose cone is already waiting impatiently here and then by the end of the month. The 15 kilometer hop might actually really happen. Apart from that, no major changes have occurred regarding the super heavy high bay or the super heavy launch pad super heavy stacking has also not begun yet, but it should happen soon. Now. Meanwhile, nasa is busy preparing the return of humans to the moon in four years.

As part of their artemis program, the artemis program could also be called apollo 2.0, since its current form. It shares many similarities. With the famous apollo program from the 60s and early 70s nasa’s artemis uses an overpriced and expandable rocket. The sls corresponds to the epic saturn v. However, sls will have in its block 1 configuration less payload capacity than the saturn 5, with only 95 magic tones compared to saturn 5’s 140 metric tons. Furthermore, sls will be thrown away after every launch, just like the saturn v, but in the 60s they at least had the excuse that reusability was sci. Fi technology, the orion capsule of the artemis program, corresponds to the apollo command module. At least this one is a step up from apollo with 11 cubic meters of interior, pressurized volume compared to apollo command modules, 6.17 cubic meters, the orion service module will be built by asa and corresponds to the apollo service module. The lunar lander will also offer more interior volume than the apollo lunar module or short lm, but this of course also depends on which lunar module will be chosen by nasa in february next year. The united apart calendar looks quite roomy and certainly has a lot more interior volume than the apollo lunarlander. The national team’s moonlander is really tall in comparison, but also has more interior volume than the apollo lm, but not as much as the dynamics of parker and the moonlander version of starship, of course, totally destroys everything with thousand cubic meters of pressurized interior volume.

This is factors more than the alpaca, the national lander and the apollo lm combined and, of course, artemis will use the lunar gateway in later missions, which is a big difference to the apollo missions, and nasa is already preparing the core stage of the sls rocket. For the first hot fire green run test, meaning that all engines will be fired up for the first time. This event is now scheduled for november 14th. Should this test go well, then the core stage will be shipped to the kennedy space center on january 14th. Next year, the launch of artemis 1 is currently planned for november 2021. Now the interesting thing about this mission is the trajectory of the orion capsule around the moon. It will do a double lunar gravity, assisted slingshot, maneuver back to earth, thus saving quite some fuel, because no lunar orbit insertion burn will be needed. Artemis ii, the first main moon round trip mission. Basically, a repeat of apollo 8 is scheduled for late 2022 or early 2023 and then finally, artemis 3. The first mission with humans landing on the moon is scheduled for 2024, and this time a man and a woman will land whether the 2024 date can be reached. Of course depends on the funding for the human lending system. Nasa will need 18 billion dollars in addition to current funding until 2025, just for the human lending system, so for the moon lander. The funny thing is that, if nasa should not get full funding for the moon landers, this might actually mean that space access starship will become the best option for nasa because believe it or not.

This huge behemoth here will actually be a lot cheaper than this funny. Tiny moonlander here spacex is building starship from the ground up as a reusable system, whereas the national team’s moon, lander will only be partially reusable and, of course, having four different companies. Work on one moon lander makes it a lot more expensive, especially when some of these companies are called blue origin lockheed and northrop hey come on. Lobbying is not cheap, right anyways. It would be really funny if nasa would be forced to choose the moon version of starship due to a lack of budget. Another piece of the puzzle to prepare the return of humans to the moon will be the clps program, the commercial lunar payload services program. It foresees a lot of robotic lunar exploration missions in the coming years. One of the more interesting ones is intuitive machines, polar resources, ice mining experiment which will land at the lunar south pole by the end of 2022 and will drill down into the lunar soil. In order to extract water ice nasa awarded 47 million dollars to intuitive machines, intuitive machines also won a tipping point award to develop a lunar hopper, which will be able to carry a payload of one kilogram up to 2.5 kilometers across the lunar surface. This is quite some cool stuff, we have to say, and it appears that there will be quite a few missions in the coming years as part of the clps program.

So we really hope that the artemis timeline will be held, because, if not, china might actually have a shot to land on the moon before nasa, and that would be really weird. We talked about it in this video here and don’t forget our first ever live stream. This sunday, we hope to see as many of you as possible.