Tropical cyclone, PAGASA, Typhoon, Philippines uper Typhoon Goni / Rolly Strongest Storm of 2020, Landfall Possible Near Manila
. This is super typhoon, gone known as rowley in the philippines, i’m meteorologist robert sped up by the way please do subscribe to this channel. I try to keep these posts. These updates, as frequent as possible let’s talk about this storm 287 kilometers per hour, with gusts of 351 kilometers per hour pressure now down to 915 hecto pascals, very rare. I start off these videos just first off in all this storm system. This is a potent engine out here. If you are ahead of this, you need to take this seriously. You need to follow the warnings from pagasa. If you are being asked to evacuate, do not hesitate. This is one of those storms. If it comes on shore in your area, there’s going to be significant damage just getting that out of the way. First, if you are in the cone of air, you need to get ready for it and i would love to give a local forecast for everybody. Let me just give you a kind of a general outlook here check in with your local weather check, in with your local authorities, about what they’re planning forecast is shifting south as well, by the way from yesterday or even the day prior that’s. The thing the forecast changes from day to day now it does look like manila – could take a more of a direct impact here. Like i mentioned, this is the strongest storm since 2016. it’s sitting over sea surface temperatures that are two to three degrees above average.
That is just fuel for the fire you are, you are throwing gasoline and ethanol and everything flammable. On top of this, letting it blow up, it is expected to continue to track towards the west. As i mentioned, west southwest likely around legos be east of manila with a landfall, but i want to mention the intensity winds right now. 155, not sustained. Those gusts 190 knots i mean over 300 kilometers per hour. It is expected to start to weaken now we’re looking at a little bit of drier air out ahead of this could cause to come off a little bit, but i mean look at this 100 still over 100, not sustained as it comes on shore. That is enough to cause serious damage. So even if we’re going to see a little bit of a weaker storm system by no means at landfall, will it be weak. Let’S take a look at the track from pagasa here as well. They actually are starting to see that shift a little bit further towards the south, around lagosby as well, pushing off here towards uh caisson, around aurora coming over angelus and even out there towards subic, but just passing north of manila, but here’s. The thing i want you to take a look at these are the multi tracks from the joint typhoon warning center jma began to taiwan and korea if you’re unfamiliar with the western pacific everybody likes to warn on these storm systems. Jma is the official they’re the nhc equivalent, but everybody else warns on these anyways pagasa even names their own storm systems.
That’S. Why we have two names. Do i agree with it that’s different video for a different time, but these are the multi tracks. The key thing they don’t all match up. I would love it if, at this point, they all match up people been asking me: is this the final track? The agencies can’t even decide, they’re all shifting a little bit further towards the south and if i think, they’re going to shift even more for further towards the south coming out short kind of like that, just around manila towards the ncr i mean this is the ecmwf Ensemble you get an idea of the spread there from the european model. Uh it’s, just some different variables, high pressure north of this is causing it to push a little bit further towards the south. The forecast changes i mean i wish i was a fortune teller telling the future is hard and the difference between 50 kilometers to 100 kilometers makes a massive difference, especially with that inner core of the eye wall and that’s. Why, i always say check the cone of air if you are in that cone of air prepare, i didn’t mean to rhyme that, but it definitely could it that’s a good thing to always remember uh, especially with the shifting stuff guys. The other worry i have is if this comes off like that comes just north of manila, storm surge and damaging winds of, or i should say damaging winds could be potential in the ncr, but also a storm surge.
I have seen this personally. The winds will wrap around on the southern periphery of this as it passes just towards the north, and we could get a funneling effect around cavite city over towards rojas boulevard there. In manila, i mean you could be seeing a bit of a surge there on the western flank of this storm system. So, even though you’re not being that direct landfall when it comes on shore, once it moves over land, those winds could be pushing up into the bidet the bay. We could be seeing a large population seeing a rising coastal flood event if it takes this particular track. It’S something i always worry about when i see a track just like this course along the east coast, storm surge, definitely a potential out there, plus the rainfall of course already saturated grounds. This is actually indicating upwards of 500 millimeters in a few areas here, that’s. On top of, like i said, already saturated grounds, we’ve had six previously named storm systems in the past month and a half alone extreme heavy rain, but flooding, i think, is more of the big issue here. Storm surge definitely severe along the east coast in that right, front, quadrant and also wind damage, because this is moving fast, so you’re going to have high winds, well, inland and you don’t really have the sierra madre mountains weakening this all too much since it’s. Coming on shore, a little bit further towards the south here’s the big picture by the way going here – philippines – here you got okinawa taiwan right, then we have atsani towards the south of guam.
Tropical storm and warnings are in place out there in guam. This is passing just towards the south and west of the island here’s, the thing look at the extended forecast yeah could push off there towards northern luzon or it could get picked up by a trough and pull towards the north towards okinawa. There is a big disparity in extended forecast i’m gon na talk about this, maybe more so tomorrow, the day after guys, let’s talk about coney now i know this is worrisome, but i try to concentrate on what is a problem now by the way. Thank you very much leandro for sending this photo in. If you guys got any photos not only of beautiful sunsets by the way, but also of this typhoon when it comes on shore, please share with me: i’ll try my best to keep them in these weather updates, and if you do not already do it subscribe to. My youtube channel, i really appreciate it um. I do this as a hobby, so the the more subscriptions, the better kind of just get some more viewership on there plus follow me on all these social media platforms. If you can um, of course, the number one thing i always say, though i i’ve been doing this for many years now. I was on nhk world for those of you who are new to following this um, so i’m used to broadcasting cover typhoons in the western pacific, not just some random white guy on here talking but uh be sure to check in with bagasa.
If you are ahead of this, they know what they’re talking about and over the course of the last 10 years, they’ve undergone a massive improvement and their forecasting capabilities. You got a lot of die hard people in there that know what they’re doing and they really really care, it’s, not just their job. I think they honestly care. I know they honestly care, i should say so be sure to check in with pagasa as well.