s gulf coast. Once again, if you, like, detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos. So as of this afternoon, the national hurricane center has upgraded, invest 95 l to a hundred percent chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm. In the next two days, and they currently have a uh hurricane hunter aircraft uh in the storm to see if it can be upgraded as early as this afternoon, looking at the latest satellite image, you can see that most of the thunderstorm convection associated with 95 l Is to the south of the surface low pressure center that’s developed to the west of grand cayman and that’s due to an mid level, low that’s developed in the mid levels of the atmosphere offset to the south of the surface low pressure. Now, looking at the latest spaghetti track guidance model for a 95 l, you can see that during the next 24 to 48 hours, it’s really not going to go very far. It’S going to be mostly stationary, drifting to the north and, depending on the model, will drift northwest directly north or northeast and that’s all due to the is in the models that they’re calculating where this storm can go but it’s based on the strength of the storm. At the time, a stronger storm will likely move more northeast. A weaker storm would work, would move more northwest and i’m going to show you the reasons why so here we’re looking at the gfs at the surface at the 850 850 millibar level, and you can see the low pressure center at the surface just to the west Of grand cayman now we have winds at the surface on the right side of the storm coming from the east out of the east and uh, you can i’ll point that, as it comes towards a storm, it moves towards the north.

Now we also have winds in the gulf of mexico coming out of the north and what’s gon na happen is those two winds are counteracting itself and that’s. Why the storm is not moving uh too much, currently it’s pretty much stationary at this moment, and then you can see at the 500 millibar level. You can see that that low pressure center is a little bit more offset to the south closer to honduras, actually compared to its surface low pressure center closer to grand cayman. But if you look up north towards louisiana, mississippi alabama and the panhandle florida there’s, an upper level trough shortwave trough that’s moving through the southeast of the united states, pointed out by this red arrow right here. What what that up upper level trough could do is if this storm was to rapidly intensify while in the caribbean and get very strong it could get caught by that upper level trough and moved over to the northeast as those spaghetti track. Model guidance were showing and move it across cuba towards florida, and you can see that the canadian ma ensemble model is suggesting that, as its main uh possibility, out of all of its model runs it’s, showing a stronger storm going across cuba to the northeast. But then what’s going to happen is a high pressure. Ridge is going to form close to the east coast of florida and what’s going to happen is that’s going to push the storm again back towards the northwest now, depending on the strength of the storm and when it actually moves out of the caribbean we’ll determine when That northwest track occurs on the canadian model.

It happens closer to florida due to the storm being stronger and getting caught up by that upper level trough and moving to the northeast before moving northwest. Due to that upper lev uh. Due to that high pressure ridge on the gfs model, the storm stays weaker and stays in the caribbean longer. So when that up, when that high pressure ridge sets up, it actually moves into the gulf of mexico through the yucatan peninsula and cuba and then due to an upper level trough moving in across texas, steers that storm to the north through the gulf of mexico. And then to the northeast into the southeast of the united states. So, looking at the gfs model, again at the 850 millibar level you can see in the black hexagon is invest 95 l most likely tropical storm zeta at this point has moved into the gulf of mexico to the north of the yucatan peninsula and that’s. Because of that high pressure center that develops to the east of florida and moving the storm to the northwest due to those steering currents at the surface now what’s going to happen is after it moves into the gulf of mexico. We have a upper level trough associated with a very strong cold front, which is also associated with a winter storm billy according to the weather channel in the us, they name winter storms, the weather channel, and this upper level trough will then turn the storm from going Northwest due to the high pressure and more to the north and then eventually to the northeast, now this that’s, the hut, the upper level trough and then that’s the direction.

This trough is going to move the storm to the northeast and there are actually some models suggesting that winter storm billy and tropical storm zeta will actually merge after it makes landfall with the gulf coast and then continue moving northeast and could bring snow to the interior Sections of new england now you’re, probably wondering well how strong is this storm going to be? We have another golf threat to the u.s and louisiana mississippi the panhandle florida alabama they’re, all under the gun, again potentially uh from this storm it’s going to be just another storm hitting this area after being devastated by so many laura delta, sally um. So right now, it’s likely gon na become a tropical depression, uh, probably by four or five o’clock eastern time. Today, uh, we do have that hurricane hunter aircraft searching the storm currently to see if the winds are strong enough to classify a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. We could see this storm turn into a tropical storm which would be tropical storm zeta. At that point, and the majority of the models are keeping it in tropical storm strength. Now, you’re, probably wondering well joe, you talked about this yesterday, it becoming a hurricane. Well, it could still become a hurricane depends on how strong it rapidly intensifies while staying in the caribbean. The caribbean has the best favorable conditions. At the moment, it’s got the very warm sea surface temperatures at 29 to 30 degrees celsius, which is equivalent to the upper 80s in fahrenheit.

It’S got all of its moisture, currently associated with it in the caribbean, but you can see that there’s some dry air associated uh in the gulf of mexico and looking at the upper upper levels of the atmosphere, the 200 millibar level. You can see that it’s currently in an upper level ridge, which would indicate very low wind shear, all of its potential to become a hurricane, would have to occur while it’s in the caribbean sea uh. So it would have to rapidly intensify similar to what delta did before impacting the yucatan peninsula. Now the the models aren’t showing a rapid intensification they’re, showing a slow intensification and that’s, mostly due to that unstacked uh low right now. The low at the surface is just to the west of grand cayman and the upper level low is south of there offset from that low closer to honduras. Now, if those two lows can get stacked, then we could see rapid intensification but we’re not seeing that on the models. Currently, what we’re seeing is we have those steering currents from the surface and at the gulf in the gulf of mexico moving down from the north and those north winds are going to infuse that dry air as the storm moves northwest into the gulf of mexico and That dry air is going to get infiltrated into the center of that storm, so you’ll have moisture being pulled north on the right side of the storm, with dry air being pulled south into the storm and that’s going to keep this storm relatively on the weaker end.

If it doesn’t rapidly intensify while in the caribbean, the gulf of mexico doesn’t have that favorable conditions, as it did during the summer, for laura and for sally and from marco and for delta. So this dry air will infiltrate this low pressure center and you can see that on the h wharf model, which has been a very good model so far this year for hurricane, you can see that it does show the storm still becoming a weak hurricane, but it’s. Mostly due because it gets stronger, while still in the caribbean before moving north into the gulf of mexico, once it moves north into the gulf of mexico, you can see that dry air starting to wrap around to the center of the storm. A lot uh pulling the moisture away from the storm to the north from the trade winds from that trough. Coming from the west, similar to what happened with marco earlier this year, where the storm moved into the gulf of mexico and uh, the southern half, the storm got cut off from moisture and all of its moisture went north into the united states. Something similar here is looking to happen to uh tropical storm zeta and maybe a minimal hurricane zeta, because the sea surface temperatures are still warm enough in the gulf of mexico, but they’re not at a depth that’s deep enough to sustain strength as it is in the Caribbean, so the official forecast from deciphering weather for invest 95 l potential tropical depression.

28 uh has this storm staying in the caribbean for the next 24 to 48 hours and then from there we’ll move to the west northwest into the gulf of mexico around day. Three due to that high pressure ridge moving into place moving the storm to the northwest, and then we have around day four that upper level trough and cold front. Moving in from the central united states, which is going to turn the storm to the north and then to the northeast into the united states, and it could happen anywhere between the texas louisiana border, all the way through the florida panhandle, depending on the speed of the Storm and that cold front. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if you’re new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.

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