Tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Zeta, Louisiana, Gulf Coast of the United States 10 am Tropical Update: Zeta expected to reach Gulf Coast by Wednesday
Once again. Let me know if you can hear me: okay, occasionally, we have audio issues uh, but we’ll get started here in just a few seconds and we’ll talk about zeta, the latest model data and what is hopefully our last tropical system of the season so um i sound Pretty good on my end, so we’ll get started and what we’ve got going on here is the latest on zeta. You can see there a tropical storm um still 40 mile per hour – winds with it, so it really hasn’t organized much overnight, but it did strengthen into a tropical storm overnight. That’S the big story that a lot of people are waking up to this morning. It is basically stationary um out there this morning and the center of it had a little trouble trying to determine where the exact center is because well that’s, just to be expected with these kind of unorganized early systems like what we’re dealing with so um, not expecting Any significant changes today, but that is the latest as a titanium advisory. Still a weak tropical storm here’s. The latest track on it is going to start to eventually move northwest towards the yucatan peninsula kind of the tip of yucatan there as we go into monday. So it’s not going to be moving very fast this weekend, it’s going to hang out down here through tonight, will gradually strengthen there’s a lot of warm water down here and relatively low shear.
So we do expect this to strengthen and then potentially be near category. One strength as it gets close to the yucatan and then possibly a category one storm once it gets into the gulf of mexico. Now, once it gets into the gulf in this portion notice how it eventually starts to make that northerly turn that’s, because the trough that upper level low is going to start forming that cold front is going to start to sweep down. That will start to turn into the north and that should cap off the intensity, if not to start to weaken it as it gets into here so that’s. Why we don’t have this really strengthening much more than we category one storm in here uh, because, as it gets closer to the northern gulf coast, the wind shear will increase and the water temperatures you know, they’re not cold, but they’re, certainly not hot hot, so here’s, The latest cone, as it gets closer to uh louisiana and possibly mississippi over towards florida still in the cone, but this is wednesday morning off the coast. You can see there. They still have us at account, one but we’re thinking it will be weakening during this process. It’S, just how quickly does it weaken it’s, certainly possible? It gets close to the coast here as a category one storm, maybe a strong tropical storm or maybe a rapidly weak tropical storm. That is a possibility with this system, as we go into wednesday.
So landfall still looks to be around wednesday from central louisiana, still all the way over to the florida panhandle. The big part of this forecast is going to be how this thing turns, and this is not a normal setup like in august. You don’t have these cold fronts in august, you don’t have these big troughs of low pressure coming down, so the turn with this could be fairly quick, meaning it could be coming this direction as that trough and front swing on down. This thing could hook towards the northeast pretty quickly, so it could get to the coast here and it decided it wants to go straight over towards mobile straight over towards pensacola or if that front is a little bit slower. This thing could creep up a bit further before we start to see that quick turn so that’s going to be the big question and, of course, that’s a nightmare when you’re talking about the forecast. What impacts will feel here, but overall from central louisiana to the florida panhandle at least the far western part of the florida panhandle all in play for the landfall from zeta as we go into wednesday? Moving fast, though this is not going to be a slow mover. This is not going to be a widespread flooding event. It doesn’t look like and because notice by thursday morning, in 24 hours, it’s already up into nearly tennessee, so it is going to be moving booking it across the area here’s the latest on our tropical models.
Some of these models are out in la la land. I mean they’re, absolutely just you can see anytime. You get models that are spitting out the center up here, they’re confused on what’s going on. We think the center is here. So most of these models are fixed in at least these ones focus on more so um because, as we go into tuesday wednesday, they all show that curve they’re all in agreement with that. The big question is still just kind of. When does that curve happen, and how quick does it happen, so notice there’s a tight cluster right over southeast louisiana? That brings it up through south mississippi it’s possible that it tries to hook a little bit quicker and comes up towards mobile, just all a possibility, but relatively decent agreement. Speaking this far out, you know you’re far out you’re five days away from this making landfall at least well we’ll, say four days out from this making landfall you don’t expect um. You know complete agreement in this process, but we’ve got some agreement that it is generally going to do this track. Northwest north northeast it’s all about timing, though so that’s what we’ll be watching now talking about the intensity. I’Ve had some questions about. You know there’s we’ve had these storms this season that have they’ve almost surprised us in some ways on the intensity and we’re getting to that part of the season, where it’s very difficult to get major major storms in the gulf of mexico in the northern gulf of Mexico, the caribbean is still boiling hot right now i mean it could sustain a significant storm down there.
It doesn’t look like it will happen because it’s just slowly organizing but as we go we’re talking about the steering currents of the windshield here as we go into um monday notice. Just then getting to the yucatan it’s going to start to ride around this ridge of high pressure sitting over florida that will start to steer into the gulf of mexico and as we go further in time, you see that as we get to wednesday. This is wednesday morning sitting off the coast. It will start to speed up and that’s, because this trough see this huge cut off low, very, very uh, big cutoff low is going to be swinging down through texas. This is going to start to pull on this thing. It will start to pull it more north, but look at all these strong winds associated with this cut off flow and the cold front’s embedded in here too, by the way that is, wind, shear that’s, going to start to push on this thing and going to start To come out of the southwest and what that will do is it will start to stretch out the vortex the system and as we get into thursday morning after landfall notice, the troughs here. This is just blasting, this system with wind shear out the southwest. So it will likely be a very lopsided wet system on the east side dry side on the west side, very typical when you get these lopsided systems like this, so overall, the wind shear is going to increase significantly as it gets closer to the coast.
So this thing could very well weaken quickly. It might maintain its intensity it’s hard to say at this point. It really is so that’s. Why we’re not looking at you know a major storm blowing up out of this as it gets closer to the north coast north gulf coast, as we go into wednesday, then, by friday, this thing’s out of here we’ve got cooler, air and sunshine across the area, so That is, i know something we’re all looking forward to just in time for halloween, so great news there also looking at the water temperatures, and these are actual water temperatures in the satellite derive these buoys out there sitting at 78. I believe that southwest pass. Just you know, south of grand isle look at the water temperature down here in the caribbean i mean it is boiling hot 86, 88 down here in some locations, not popping up so plenty warm down here. It is plenty warm in the central and southern gulf to sustain maybe a cat one storm and then, as you get into the northern gulf war you’re getting into your colder waters. This is enough to sustain a tropical system, but when you start getting in the 70s you’re not going to have a big big hurricane with temperatures in the 70s, however, 70s don’t go too far out. So yes, cooler waters, but uh more than inhibiting factor is going to be wind, shear and it’s a dry air going to try to push into that vortex of zeta.
So speaking of scenarios, um kind of a wide range of scenarios that kind of play out here with regard to do we see impacts, or do we see absolutely nothing at all here in southeast louisiana, the cone right now the center of it, and we try not To focus on the center of the cone so i’m going to give you multiple scenarios here, this would bring impacts to southeast louisiana and even more so, to mississippi and alabama. And really, you know this thing will track it’ll start making that northeast turn, so it could bring impacts to southeast louisiana, south, mississippi and alabama and the florida panhandle. So this would bring coastal flooding storm surge winds. Certainly, winds can sometimes surprise you in these tropical storms like this, that are weakening, but interacting with a cold front and a trough like this one is going to be doing remember olga last year it actually moved through about this time. Last year, it wasn’t even a tropical system when it moved through, but it produced 70 plus miles per hour, winds across our area, so that’s why you got to kind of watch these things. You can certainly get power outages and the winds can sometimes surprise you. Rainfall threat looks to be relatively low or you would see heavy rainfall in this in this case and localized street flooding i’m sure. But the widespread flooding wouldn’t be an issue because it’s moving so fast other scenario that is still a possibility.
This thing moves further to the west. We get rainfall coastal flooding, some winds here in southeast louisiana and south central louisiana, that’s a possibility, um best case scenario, and this is a possibility – and this is just as much a possibility as it going to our west. At this point it tries it comes up. It gets right to the coast and it veers to the northeast. It goes to mobile, it goes to pensacola and we hardly get anything from it, that’s a possibility. So before you know, you start screaming after this that you know the forecast wasn’t right. This is a possibility. You know, we’ve got to communicate that, but at the same time you can’t, you know expect this to happen. You have to say well, it could come here and we need to at least monitor and prepare, as as you need to. I also want to show you one other thing before i leave you and it is um two of our big models: the gfs and the euro, and there’s very big differences between the two. This is wednesday afternoon. At 2 pm, the gfs has been quicker on the system um and quicker. I shouldn’t say on the system: more quick on the cold front and the trough coming on down. So what that does is it turns it a little bit more quicker and it pulls it to the north quicker making landfall sooner it has the system making landfall in mobile notice how dry we are here, wednesday afternoon, it’s a possibility if that trough speeds up and That cold front speeds up between this trough and cold front.
Maybe 12 hours it’s got the storm coming further west and possibly a little bit stronger too. The euro has it making landfall in southeast louisiana near houma, morgan city somewhere in there and then coming right up over us, as it eventually starts to curve up this direction. That would bring impacts to the area with heavy rainfall, probably some high winds and, of course, some coastal flooding from storm surge as well. So that’s one of those scenarios that we um the two different kind of very vastly different outcomes with regards to impact, but very minor changes in the details of the forecast, like the timing of the trough and things like that, so it’s, just one of those nightmare Forecasts, it really is the good news today is going to be nice. We’Ll have clouds most of the day, it’s going to be cold today for the saints game, it’s going to feel like football weather tomorrow, a little bit warmer tuesday we’ll see some showers and storms. I think, regardless of what track we’ll see some of that moisture flowing up into the area and that will bring some disturb you know some showers and thunderstorms wednesday will be the main day. I only have a 50 chance of rain right now, because we’re still not sure if it’s going to go, if it’s going to skirt us or if it’s going to come right over us, so that rain chance could go up or go down by thursday we’re.
Looking like we’re clearing out the cold front, moves in look at friday, upper 60s sunshine, halloween, sunshine, cold temperatures, it’s, gon na feel nice and cool. If you’re gon na do any um, i think for halloween, so some great news there, so that does it for the 10 a.m. Update everybody thanks! So much for joining me. Uh we’ll have, of course, a 1 p.m update, but the next big one comes in at 4 p.m. This is our 7th storm. This season that we are tracking could potentially be our fifth land falling, hurt our storm of the season um for louisiana by the way that would be a record we’ve only ever maxed out at four we’re currently tied with that it happened in 2002, so what’s. The word this season unprecedented in so many ways, and here we go again. Hopefully this is um it after zeta. By the way, zeta um is the furthest. We’Ve ever got with the listed names it’s, not the furthest. We still aren’t to the 2005 record because there was an unnamed storm that was gone back and classified so technically. There were 28 name tropical systems in 2005. This would be 27, so we would have to get to ada to tie the 05 record um. At this point so and i’m, fine with not breaking that record book hurricane season goes until november 30th. All right thanks everybody. So much for joining me. Have a wonderful sunday have a wonderful monday, enjoy the cooler weather because well wednesday uh could be.