The potential that one side could pick up all three winning a trifecta based on recent polling. It looks very unlikely that trump and the republicans could do it, but data from polls across the nation analyzed by 538 suggests there’s a real chance of a democratic trifecta. So in this video we’ll tell you just how likely a trifecta is, how likely the democrats are to win each of the three and how we got here. A couple of days ago, we sent out a poll to our backers on patreon asking them which video they wanted to see, release next and well. They picked this one. Being able to vote on. Video topics is one of many perks for signing up to our patreon, including early access to videos behind the scenes posts and seeing your name and likeness in videos. Hey anthony, find out more and support the channel by clicking the link in the description since 2016 and trump’s white house win, some have felt pretty burnt by polling with some polls missing, trump’s victory and others, while correctly anticipating clinton’s popular vote, win failing to predict trump’s Electoral college victory since then, though, the polls have been recalibrated, models have been made more accurate and well. They were proven to be more reliable in the 2018 midterms. We discuss all this in another video on polling and whether you can trust polls this time around and that’s linked in the description anyway. We’Re talking about polling so much because this whole topic, a democratic trifecta, is only really a conversation because of recent polling likely.

Everyone knows that biden is ahead in polls nationally with 538, giving the former vice president an 88 chance of winning the election and trump just a 12 chance. Ultimately, that comes down to the electoral map and the fact that, when we’re looking at the states, which are solid, likely or leaning towards a candidate biden, has a significant lead and among those vital swing states. The real, clear politics average gives biden the lead in all. But two states don will be very wary of this polling, of course, and trump did win most of these states in 2016, but they’re called swing states for a reason, and while neither side wants to become complacent, it’s definitely not impossible for biden to win these places. Back, ultimately, though, that makes biden’s path to the presidency relatively easy to unpick when the state’s projected as democratic and then pick up the swing states of michigan, minnesota, wisconsin, nevada and pennsylvania, all of which are projected to lean biden’s way, at least according to recent polling. So it’s relatively easy to see why many posters are giving biden the edge here. He has a significant lead in national polls showing that he’s likely to win the popular vote, but it also seems he’s got an edge in the swing states that really decide. This whole thing then comes the issue of the senate and the house it’s not much of a trifecture. If the democrats win only one of three in fact, it’s, not even a trifecta at all.

What am i saying anyway? This is an awkward transition to talking about the senate. We released a whole video on flipping the senate a few weeks ago. At the time, things were looking mixed to good for the democrats, but today 538 is giving them a 74 chance of winning a majority in the senate up fairly significantly from the 60 odds. The democrats had when we released that video in early september. If you’ve already watched that video you’ll know this already, but the senate is made up of a hundred members, each member sits six year terms and elections are held every two years, meaning a third of the senate is up for re election in each cycle. This time there are 35 seats up for grabs with one of those being a special election in georgia, after the retirement of johnny isakson for health reasons. Ultimately, this is a pretty smart system, as it allows for the constant rotation of senators, meaning that the body is constantly adjusting and reacting to public opinion. It also means there are always longer serving members in the body and there’s, never a complete reset of senators. The slight issue is that the 35 senate seats aren’t evenly spread by party with 23 republicans facing re election and only 10 democrats. That means considering the republicans are currently holding the majority in the senate, it’s, clearly their game to lose. At this point, however, there’s absolutely no guarantee that the republicans will lose the senate.

They have more senators to reaffirm, but that could just mean their favored states are all on the ballot this time around. In order to turn the senate, blue democrats need to gain three seats, then both sides would have 50 seats each, allowing the vice president to break the tie. It seems that the electoral math dictates that if the democrats win, the senate they’re also very likely to win the presidency. So if they win those three seats and the vp gets to break the tie, it’s very likely that veep will become harris. I say they need to pick up three seats because they need to increase their standing from the current 47 senators to 50., but in reality they actually probably need to win four seats that’s, because democratic senator doug jones is likely to lose his race in alabama. So in reality, they’ll need to win at least four new senate seats. Now this doesn’t seem impossible if you trust the polling. The democrats are likely to win four seats currently held by republicans in colorado, arizona, north carolina and maine, meaning that 50 seats total certainly looks possible. It would also give the democrats their second win of the trifecta, but before we move on it’s worth recognizing that the democrats will want more than just a 50 50 senate split broken by the vice president, 50 50 control is certainly more power than they currently hold. In the chamber, but it’s not a superb position to be in if we assume that republicans are likely to vote against all their bills, democratic leadership would need to convince every single democratic senator to support every single bill with 50 50 there’s no margin for error.

Everyone has to fall in line which, if you watch political wranglings for a while now you’ll know isn’t all that common and gives individual senators a whole lot of power. So, ideally, the democrats would want a bigger win in the senate than just 50 control and the tie break to do this. They could hope to win in iowa where the race is looking fairly, even or even in montana or georgia. So a senate win for the democrats certainly looks possible sitting at a likelihood of 74, but ideally the democrats want more than that 538 spell curve shows that the most likely senate win for the democrats is 51.5 senators. Oh half a senator anyway, a 51.5 win would save harris from constantly breaking ties, but is still a smaller margin than the republicans currently enjoy in the senate. Anyway, let’s take a look at the third and final element of the trifecta. The house. The house of representatives contains 435 representatives each as the name suggests, representing a district in their state. Unlike the senate, every representative is up for election every election cycle, meaning they get voted in every two years, which means that every single representative is up for re election. In november, and therefore, we could see a more significant shift than in the senate, 538 polling predicts there’s a 95 chance of the democrats, maintaining control of the house, giving the republicans odds of only 1 in 20.. They predict the most likely outcome.

Is the democrats controlling 238 seats to the republicans 197, which would see the democrats slightly increasing their grip on the house increasing their total from 232 to 238? Considering there are 435 individual races going on across the country we don’t have the time to run through them. All but it’s safe to say that it’s widely agreed that the democrats will keep control of the house, but anything is possible and if you were to run this model a hundred times five times, the republicans would win regardless, though it does look very likely to remain Under democratic control, so those are, the odds. Biden has an 88 chance of winning the presidency, and the democrats have a 74 chance of gaining control of the senate and 95 chance of maintaining control in the house. Those sound like pretty good odds if you’re hoping to turn the map blue, but what are the odds of all three things happening simultaneously. Well, it’s been a while, since i’ve been in math class and my percentage multiplication skills are a little rusty. So luckily, 538 ran the numbers and determined that the odds of a democratic trifecta sit at 70 percent with any election. Nothing is certain and, with time, still left until election day, it’s impossible to know what either side might pull out of the bag. In fact, later this week, we’ll release a video explaining trump’s path to 270 voters and how he could definitely still win re election 70 odds.

Certainly, don’t mean that it’s, guaranteed and polling errors could swing the whole thing, but it’s not looking impossible that we could see a democratic trifecta come november. What do you think, though, do you trust the polling? Do you think that the democrats are set for a clean sweep or are you expecting the trump and the republicans will pull something out of the bag? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below for more on the 2020 presidential election be sure to subscribe. The channel and hit the bell icon special thanks to our patreon backers, who make videos like this one possible and if you want to see your name at the end of videos, then be sure to back us on patreon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmDRqTLmFSg